Despite its size, India is currently a small e-commerce market. Online retail revenue is about $30 billion a year, a little more than 3% of total retail sales. Delivery networks are fragmented and Internet access can be slow, especially in rural parts of the country.
However, India stands a good chance of becoming the next China, both in population and economic development. India's current population of 1.37 billion is expected to exceed China's and become the largest in the world around 2027.
India's demographics are more favorable than China's because it is dominated by young people, which will drive economic growth in the coming decades. It is currently the sixth largest economy in the world, but could become the third largest as early as 2026, behind only China and the United States.
In addition to being the largest demographic group, young Indians are more likely to shop online, speak English, and live in cities with well-developed delivery networks. Against this backdrop, e-commerce in India is expected to grow at a rate of 30% per year and reach $200 billion by 2026.
India is more open to Western business than China, but it limits foreign online retailers to a marketplace model with only third-party sellers. This makes marketplaces with their own retail operations, such as Amazon, more competitive in India than anywhere else in the world.